What will make today's laptops obsolete first?

[opaque_forest]

Hey everyone,
From what I've gathered, a significant portion of this forum(and ThinkPad users at large) are fans of the x220 and older, making massive upgrades and overhauls to keep them operating. I was wondering what item in, for arguments sake, an x220 will become obsolete first.

Having grown up in the 90's and 2000's when a computer was obsolete after a few years, it seems like progress is slowing considerably. I think that VR is jumping the shark and so I'm not worried about Intel integrated graphics, but what do you think will ultimately be the straw on the camel's back(aside from normal wear and tear on devices)?

[Ibthink]

From a technology perspective these middle-aged models like the X220 are obsolete already. They have slower SSDs (non PCIe, non NVMe), older memory (DDR3), no LTE, displays with a limited non-high-res resolution (and often also TN). They also lack modern ports like Thunderbolt or USB Type C, and they are not able drive a 4K display at 60 Hz. These are all small things, but if you add them up, these models are obsolete in terms of features.

Of course, this does not mean they are unusable or you have to stop using them. Defining a strict border for the usage is hard. Even today there are still some people who use T60 or even older T4x machine productive as their main workhorses. So I guess in 5 years there still will be some people who hang onto the X220/T420 generation.

[Puppy]

From a technology perspective these middle-aged models like the X220 are obsolete already.

But still have a keyboard.

The first item is warranty. Other items order depends on your needs. Keyboardless laptop is useless for me, so X220 is the last one, unless Lenovo or other vendor brings the useable keyboard layout back. USB 2.0 is another such item, Intel 2nd gen Core CPU and HD 3000 not supported in Windows 10, slow RAM ...

If you watch the laptop market you might notice that laptop prices with corresponding specs (similar or better CPU power, drive size, screen resolution, memory, backlit keyboard) went up during last three years. If you want an upgrade of three or four years old laptop with similar or better overall specs, it is definitely more expensive now. That might be just another reason why people keep these old ones. All these modern super-thin laptops lacks power and have cooling issues resulting in fast CPU throttling. Reliability is also becoming an issue, but this is rather Lenovo specific issue of 2016 models because of unstable BIOS and hurried release of unfinished P models.

I would like to upgrade my X220. Price is not an issue but there is nothing to buy these days The best Lenovo option, if you desperatedly need a new laptop, seems to be ThinkPad 13.

[exTPfan]

(a) A laptop with a keyboard and (tall!) screen that matches the quality of those on a T60/T61 Frankenpad.
(b) Essential software no longer working.
I see no sign that (a) will happen anytime soon, but (b) is starting to make computers running XP obsolete.
(For my work laptop, I care only about how efficiently it allows me to do my work, not whether is "cool" or has the latest tech.)

As far as speeds are concerned, here is how long it takes to compile a 500 page TeX file:
T61 (2008, T9900 cpu) 16secs;
X220 (2012, i5 cpu) 15 secs;
T450s (2015, i5 cpu) 14 secs.

Here are the Windows 7 Experience numbers for the same 3 computers (with SSDs)
T61: 6.6/6.6/3.6/3.2/7.7
X220: 6.9/7.4/4.6/5.7/7.9
T450s: 7.1/7.5/6.7/6.7/7.9.
cpu/memory/graphics/graphics/hd

[TPFanatic]

I consider Core 2 Duo to not yet be obsolete, because it has two processing threads. A Pentium M or other Single Core, Single Thread processor can't function because modern programs are so inefficiently designed to (ab)use 100% of the processing thread forever and ever. Nothing will ever get done with svchost.exe, Antivirus, Adobe Flash, or sloppy websites ganging on a poor single thread processor.

As soon as bad programs are told to maximize 100% of more than two CPU threads, Core 2 Duo laptops are screwed.

When programs become designed to sloppily maximize ALL the processing threads, then not even a 4 thread Hyperthreading Core-i series of today's laptops can survive.

So, insensitive programming will kill today's laptops.

[Puppy]

So, insensitive programming will kill today's laptops.

Parallelism is modern trend in software development. Raw power of CPU is not increasing so much because of physical/technology limits and CPU architecture/instruction set backward compatibility (remember the Intel Itanium failure). Multi-core CPU is currently the easiest way to offer more power. That's why support for natural parallelism is incorporated into existing languages/platforms. There are also new features like SIMD that makes old CPU obsolete.

Sloppy websites are related to bad underlying technology - HTML, CSS and JavaScript is just wrong technology for todays web applications. All attempts to optimize primitive typeless JavaScript fails, the only way remains a brute-force solution by more and more (unnecessary) CPU power. Flash is terrible software itself and antiviruses are useless.

[Summilux]

HTML, CSS and JavaScript is just wrong technology for todays web applications.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider proper technologies for current web applications - and why

[Puppy]

Out of curiosity, what do you consider proper technologies for current web applications - and why

There is nothing like that yet. Basically something strongly-typed that can be easily jited with proper presentation layer abstraction. XAML is close.

[shawross]

HD Graphics support is very important today and obviously still will be in the future. This also ties in with software development and we will have to see how that advances.

Depending on what software you run now and in the future, CPU power probably won't be the defining criteria for hardware.

A release of a new OS previously would see many people upgrade their hardware but Windows 10 still runs fine on older hardware especially those with HD Graphics support.

[TonyJZX]

Define 'obsolete'.

I think a more correct term is when will these respected units become too difficult or slow to use in the real world? To me the golden age is the T61 to the T420.

When the laptop becomes too slow or too difficult to use in Windows or your chosen o/s on the wider internet.

To me the T61 has passed this point and the T400 is on the precipice.

I have the T61 and T400 w/ 4Gb and the typical 120Gb SSD. They run Win7 fine however for my fleet, I dont need to use them any more.

I picked up T410/T420s for less than $75 in a diskless frame. I add a $50 SSD and they run Win7 on the internet faster than I would need. So why do I need to use my T61/T400?

These are some guys here who run Unix and maybe dont even hook up to the internet. Therefore any machine would last forever.

There are some machines in the X range that would be struggling in Win7/Win10. Those SU9300 SL7100 and those 1.2 dual cores that are slower than your avg. smartphone now. They are approaching useless if you need to stick to mainstream o/s.

VR is an illusion here as you obviously need a high performance gaming PC to do it so is irrelevant to all but the most powerful laptops available today.

[jdk]

These are some guys here who run Unix and maybe dont even hook up to the internet. Therefore any machine would last forever.

My threshold is whether or not the processor supports AES-NI. Everything older (including most recently the Haswell-generation i3) are obsolete already. Full disk encryption is a MUST these days, and the AES-NI extensions make a noticeable difference.

I think the next big step forward will be fanless computing. I already have a couple of fanless desktops (one desktop-grade i5, one laptop-grade i7 desktop), no moving parts. In the laptop market, the new MacBook, a couple of models from ASUS, the HP Stream 13, and a handful of Chromebooks meet this requirement already.

[Puppy]

Full disk encryption is a MUST these days, and the AES-NI extensions make a noticeable difference.

All modern SSDs encrypts data by default. Using the HDD ATA password you can protect the generated encryption key so it provides almost the same level of security as BitLocker.

[jdk]

Full disk encryption is a MUST these days, and the AES-NI extensions make a noticeable difference.

All modern SSDs encrypts data by default. Using the HDD ATA password you can protect the generated encryption key so it provides almost the same level of security as BitLocker.

Great point! For most users, the ATA password used to unlock the master key on modern SSD firmware will be thorough enough encryption. The fact that the FBI or whomever still use the courts to compel people to reveal their encryption passphrase makes me think that they have not yet mandated degraded encryption or backdoors at the hardware level.

I failed to consider SSD's in my previous comment. I have always used the operating system-level encryption, be it dm-crypt or bioctl or whatever FreeBSD uses; this goes back to the days of spinning disks (which was last month for me!). In those cases, AES-NI makes a huge performance increase, and the encryption key is transparent to firmware. Thanks for your correction.

[GnatGoSplat]

For business use, I think laptops still have a long life ahead. A lot of people using laptops in IT still.

For home use, the tablet has virtually already obsoleted the laptop for my wife and me. My tablet is instant-on, cold-boots super fast, is considerably lighter and easier to carry around, has better battery life, charges faster, and is even much faster running Win 10 x64 than my T7200-upgraded Z61t. I only use my Z61t 2-3 times per year now, mostly when I need something portable with a real keyboard (which is not often), while I use the tablet daily. Same story with my wife and her personal laptop, though she does use her work Thinkpad daily, which is why I think businesses will be using laptops for years to come.

[bit_twiddler]

RetroThinkpad... that would make my T420 obsolete.

[cadillacmike68]

For business use, I think laptops still have a long life ahead. A lot of people using laptops in IT still.

For home use, the tablet has virtually already obsoleted the laptop for my wife and me. My tablet is instant-on, cold-boots super fast, is considerably lighter and easier to carry around, has better battery life, charges faster, and is even much faster running Win 10 x64 than my T7200-upgraded Z61t. I only use my Z61t 2-3 times per year now, mostly when I need something portable with a real keyboard (which is not often), while I use the tablet daily. Same story with my wife and her personal laptop, though she does use her work Thinkpad daily, which is why I think businesses will be using laptops for years to come.

Try doing your taxes on a tablet, or running accounting SW with hundreds of entries per month on it - for multiple companies. QB online flat out SUCKS in this regard, even on a large wide screen (WSXGA+).

Actually machines 5-10 years old are fine for me because I can't stand winblows 8 and 10 is not much better. W7 runs everything I need.

[GnatGoSplat]

Try doing your taxes on a tablet, or running accounting SW with hundreds of entries per month on it - for multiple companies. QB online flat out SUCKS in this regard, even on a large wide screen (WSXGA+).

In my case, I still have a desktop machine for gaming, so any serious work like taxes gets done on the desktop. Tablet is used for web browsing while lounging on the sofa. Not too much need for the Thinkpad any more, but I still keep it around for those rare times I have a need for it.

[micrex22]

From a technology perspective these middle-aged models like the X220 are obsolete already. They have slower SSDs (non PCIe, non NVMe), older memory (DDR3), no LTE, displays with a limited non-high-res resolution (and often also TN). They also lack modern ports like Thunderbolt or USB Type C, and they are not able drive a 4K display at 60 Hz. These are all small things, but if you add them up, these models are obsolete in terms of features.

Of course, this does not mean they are unusable or you have to stop using them. Defining a strict border for the usage is hard. Even today there are still some people who use T60 or even older T4x machine productive as their main workhorses. So I guess in 5 years there still will be some people who hang onto the X220/T420 generation.

I'll play the devil's advocate here and say I'd be careful from assuming a technology perspective autonomously realizes advancements / more features. In some situations technology has regressed due to cost or generational preference due to missing knowledge.

For instance, my IDtech display is from 2005 and runs a resolution of 3840x2400. While 5K is able to surpass it (which came out in late 2014), this would still make any display under 3840x2400 after 2001 inferior. Or the fact keyboards used to have unlimited key rollover, but now is no longer the case--that also makes virtually all keyboards today inferior. Or the fact most desktops omit error-correcting memory and SCSI buses* well they're too, inferior.

As you say, it really depends on how we define "obsolete", I have technology that's "obsolete" in the sense that it is no longer produced, but still more advanced in that it's actually superior (sadly)... So if we're defining obsolete in conjunction with "inferior", we're really not going to get very far / but "obsolete" in the sense there are critical missing features, for sure.

In the context of older ThinkPads, critical missing features all come down to the motherboard implementation: of which they've escaped the "plateau" period of the Core i series (which also supports a more competent size of RAM). RAM and GPU in particular are a huge problem.... I've been surprised with how far Penryn can still get you. But that will be meaningless if you don't have enough RAM and a poor GPU.

*Of course you need to pay premium for ECC & SCSI / which is why I paid 4K for my tower.

[kfzhu1229]

One more thing: more and more bloated ads and software.