Tech Predictions of 2008

[iamdmc]

So now that we're almost at the end of 2007, it's unlikely that any new tech will be introduced between now and Christmas (retailers like to clear all of their merch first), but everyone knows that after Christmas in mid to late-January there's a tech explosion. What are some of your predictions? It doesn't have to be specific to the Thinkpad series, but it is more encouraged.

My predictions:

Q1:
-Intel releases 45nm CPU for Notebooks. 65nm becomes a quaint museum specimen.
-Intel Turbomemory is dropped/scrapped
-2GB Notebook Memory Modules become very affordable ~$50 or less (some are already this cheap, but this will become a standard price)
-Vista SPI makes Vista usability increase and become agreeable (or at least less hateful). Battery life increases; performance increase.
-ASUS eeePC released in 10", is a hit. Still can't run a decent OS for a power-user.
-Some start-ups for cheap consumer PCs make computing very affordable
-Dell Latitude Tablet released. Multi-touch is nice, but the machine is slow, of poor build quality/design, and is sensitive to the faintest breeze. Thinkpad users laugh.
-AMD releases more budget-performance CPUs for performance-price. Loses ground to Intel. People still buy AMD, because it is cheap.

Q2:
-WiMax or LTE is widespread (Wireless internet everywhere... anyone?)
-FiOS becomes more widely available (up to 100MBPS sounds pretty good to me) in the US. Canada still lags behind (and I live there... [censored])
-Lenovo Announces new Thinkpad X and T series laptops using Expresscard, Intel's 45nm CPU, up to 8GB RAM, 64-bit OS, LED backlight, WiMAX or LTE option. NO IBM STICKER (sad, but true)
-DDR3 takes over. DDR2 becomes ultra-cheap.
-Sandisk 16GB MiniPCIe cards are available. Are used to store the OS, leaving the SDD or HDD largely optional, mainly as data storage.
-PCs to have up to 16GB RAM. Microsoft plans new OS with a minimum requirement of 32GB.

Q3:
-SDD becomes slightly more affordable, at about 1.5-2x more expensive than a disk-based drive for the same capacity. Capacities of 128GB in production. 256GB+ announced.
-Intel intros new architecture based around the 45nm process.
-Apple Intros new iPods. No one is impressed.
-Apple intros new iMacs and Macbooks. Quality continues to suffer (apparently the condensation problems, 18-bit pixelated screens, overheating problems, and battery fires aren't enough for Steevie-Jay)
-BluRay wins the "Format war". No one cares. Relatedly, FDDs (flash) becomes cheaper and will come to be the dominant form of quick file/media transfers.
-2TB HDDs released. (That's twice as much pr0n)

Q4:
-OLED TVs >32" announced by reputable companies
-Everything gets a bit cheaper.
-Intel Announces release date for CPUs using the new architecture
-Manufacturer's bounce around the idea of OLED flexible displays for laptops, cell phones
-Apple introduces new OS X 10.x Fanboys rejoice. The world shrugs.

[Trekk69]

Mac pushes out a tablet... one of the quarters....
(http://www.gottabemobile.com/MultiTouchAndApple.aspx). Would seem possible.

(loved your answers by the way)

[pianowizard]

-Apple intros new iMacs and Macbooks. Quality continues to suffer

But one of them will weigh only around 3 lbs, making it Apple's first-ever ultraportable laptop. That has got to be really exciting for Mac users.

-2GB Notebook Memory Modules become very affordable ~$50 or less (some are already this cheap, but this will become a standard price)

And we'll see sale prices below $30 shipped. When that happens, I'll buy one and max out my HP nc2400.

-Dell Latitude Tablet released. Multi-touch is nice, but the machine is slow, of poor build quality/design, and is sensitive to the faintest breeze. Thinkpad users laugh.

When was the last time you used a Dell latitude? The build quality of the Latitude line was dramatically improved with the introduction of the D620, which is miles better than the D610 and feels even stronger than some Thinkpads that I've used.

-Lenovo Announces new Thinkpad X and T series laptops using Expresscard, Intel's 45nm CPU, up to 8GB RAM, 64-bit OS, LED backlight, WiMAX or LTE option. NO IBM STICKER (sad, but true)

Also, the X series will probably become widescreen, i.e. 1280x800, which is of course much better than the current 1024x768. But it will most likely continue to not have an internal optical drive.

[jdhurst]

I am looking at Vista in Q1 2008. I will wait until I can get a preload with Vista Business SP1. If that is Q2, so be it. I have been looking at ThinkPads and I can still get a standard 14" T6x with a 2.4GHz processor, a 200Gb 7200-rpm hard drive and something like 4Gb of ram. I may jump for the machine sooner and get Microsoft to send me the service pack on DVD's (several, I think). I will also get at least a 4 year warranty upgrade. The price for all this isn't too bad, and my business can afford it.

WiMax in Q2? I will be much surprised if that happens. Wireless has been around for a while and unless you are 10 feet from the nearest access point, forget it. The promises of WiFi while on a park bench were hooey.

A fast cellular card? That is probably what I will do. My current Sony Ericsson works in a million times the coverage area of any WiFi.
... JDH

[erik]

Also, the X series will probably become widescreen, i.e. 1280x800, which is of course much better than the current 1024x768. But it will most likely continue to not have an internal optical drive.

that might happen sooner than later given the recent X-series notebook price reductions and sales.   i doubt they'll ever have integrated optical drives -- and i, for one, am totally fine with that .

[ajkula66]

iamdmc wrote:

-

WiMax or LTE is widespread (Wireless internet everywhere... anyone?)

Not as long as Baby Bells have a say in it, and they still rule the telecom market.

iamdmc wrote:

FiOS becomes more widely available (up to 100MBPS sounds pretty good to me) in the US. Canada still lags behind (and I live there... [censored])

Not likely. Verizon's contract with most of its unions expires in August of 2008, and both sides are pretty much digging trenches right now. FiOS is likely to be one of the biggest obstacles on the bargaining table, and it's not going to be pretty...take it from someone who has been on both sides of that table...

[Puppy]

Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4 ... still horrible TN panels only with lower quality than cheapest LCD monitors on the market. Crap everywhere

[gator]

iamdmc makes some good predictions, but I doubt that we will see WiMax next year. Intel's penryn will be definitely out and will outsell and probably outperform equivalent AMD parts. The real object of interest is the montevina platform and the goodies it brings to the latptop arena. DDR3 might become mainstream by the end of 2008 (so its time to gather/hoard up DDR and pre-DDR memory modules )

Nand flash is becoming more and more mainstream (and cheap!) with the capacites increasing, and successful integration of the 45nm technology into production will help this even more. SSDs are a great option for laptops and I am excited to see this trend gaining momentum. Sandisk recently announced a 8 GB PCI-e nand flash, and this makes it more interesting ... I am not sure what will happen to Intel's robson, but if we can have enough capacity to host an entire OS, I am not going to say no!

This is my wishlist for thinkpads in 2008:
1. Atleast one T/R series laptop to still come out in 14.1"/ 5 lb. form factor that we like so much with the standard options for next year.

2. Atleast one T-series laptop to be the absolute cutting edge - the T61p is close, but it is not there yet (I am what you call the demanding consumer!). I'd love to see the best screens, options for SSDs (both PCI-e and regular 2.5"), the absolute best in wireless connectivity, advanced outputs/inputs like displayport, s-video in/out, firewire (not the baby version we have now) - everything. The price would be above the roof no doubt, but I bet that there will be a good number of buyers - more than what there is for the thinkpad reserve edition.

3. Better support in terms of drivers/system updates than what we have now. Frankly, I am afraid to update my main T60 system since I don't want to break the perfect state it is in now (it took me quite a bit of time to configure it to be exactly how I want it).

[mattbiernat]

I would love to see Vista SP1 (maybe SP2) to include true classic theme.

[ulrich.von.lich]

I agree with gator. I don't think ThinkPads now are as cutting edge as they used to be. It's been a while since Intel X7900, LED display and blue ray optical drive were used in other laptops, although those features are not very business-oriented.

I also wish they'd distinguish the R series from the T series and make them true desktop-replacement thinkpads, or revive the A series if they intend to make R series budget machines. Currently the R series are only thicker and heavier than the T series but with no better performance. That's not what desktop-replacement machines mean to be. IMO those machines should have: fast processors (desktop processors without excessive TDP), high productivity/quality screens, good graphics, more than one ultrabay/HDD slot, more USB ports and integrated DVI port, firewire etc.. The battery life is not very important and for the weight, anything around 7 pounds would be ok. For me or people who don't have a permenant home, it's still more interested than a thin & light TP + docking station + external monitor + external hard drive etc.. However I doubt Lenovo would ever consider it, for the same reason there's no 17" ThinkPads around. The A31p was close.. don't know why they discontinued the A series in the first place

I'm counting on Vista SP1 too. Hopefully it'll make some Apple users silence a little bit. It'd also be great if OSX came to PC someday.

[mattbiernat]

OSX came to PC someday.

this will probably never happen, but i agree it would be nice. And a 17" R series/desktop replacement would be something I would buy. I mean apple, dell and i think hp have laptops like these, how come lenovo doesn't?

[pianowizard]

I also wish they'd distinguish the R series from the T series and make them true desktop-replacement thinkpads, or revive the A series if they intend to make R series budget machines.

Perhaps the simplest thing for Lenovo to do would be to bring back R-series models with the suffix "p". The R50p was the last R*p. Lenovo should make the R62p their most powerful machine, with even more features than the T62p. The T62p needs to be kept as light as possible, so it can't afford to have as many features as the R62p, which doesn't really have a weight limit.

[iamdmc]

OS X has come to PCs, but not officially...

Google "Hackintosh" and you'll see what I mean. There are videos of OS X on a Thinkpad floating around the net somewhere.

[erik]

OS X has come to PCs, but not officially...

Google "Hackintosh" and you'll see what I mean. There are videos of OS X on a Thinkpad floating around the net somewhere.

fyi, we have an entire forum dedicated to OS-X on a ThinkPad.

[iamdmc]

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/solid-state- ... 327554.php

Micron releasing 64GB SATA SSD for notebooks (2.5") in Q1. Can 128GB+ be far behind? say Mid-to-late Q2 or early Q3?

And if Micron is making it, it's bound to be less expensive!

[lophiomys]

In 2008 it would be great to see a T62p with
- 4:3 15" UXGA screen (better than Flexview/IPS)
- best battery performance, with battery not sticking out
- best ergonomics - silent and cool
- a keyboard WITHOUT Windows Keys
- full driver and ACPI support for Linux
- OpenBios/LinuxBios
- maybe an energy efficient Cell processor?
- "green" production and recycling processes
- and 128GB SSD of course