Waiting for new chipset, processor, models?

[Leon]

I have been in the computer industry for years, so I am WELL VERSED in the wait/don't wait for new technology syndrome. I know that you should never wait for something coming down the pike, because you will ALWAYS be waiting for the next "big thing". However, I wonder if this is the exception in the laptop world. I plan on upgrading from my (perfectly working) 600X to a T42. But I keep hearing that BIG changes are coming (much more significant than incremental speed/feature changes). So, my question is..... is a particular point in time when it DOES make sense to wait??

[Skywing]

the next big change to centrino wont be for another year or so, so there really isnt much to wait for

[awolfe63]

Also - look at Anandtech.com. Most of these changes hit the desktop systems this week and they were big dissapointments.

[Leon]

people tell me the delay was just a rumor... the big changes in laptops will occur Q4 this year.....

[Conmee]

With Intel and Microsoft, the rumors tend to be more accurate than the announced release dates. I generally don't put much stock into announcements from these two companies that are more than 60 days in advance, because Intel tends to have manufacturing issues to overcome, and Microsoft, well, they tend to announce ridiculous dates just to keep people/competitors guessing, and consumers in suspense. lol.

Considering Intel had to delay Dothan a couple months recently and that was just a CPU upgrade/update (yeah, they had problems with the manufacturing process, etc...), I doubt there will be an on-time launch based on current roadmaps for the next notebook CPUs/chipset combos.

But again, this all depends on if you're waiting for Centrino updates or desktop replacement system updates. If you're looking at going with the latest/greatest in a desktop replacement, machines from Dell and Alienware are throwing everything into their machines (including the kitchen sink) and are hot on the heels of desktops. The Centrino platforms, by comparison, are much more dependent on Intel, since Via, AMD, and others aren't making Centrino-specific parts, or Centrino-comparable parts for the mobile market.

Based on the roadmaps I've seen from IBM, Q4-2005Q1 are optimistic estimates for complete technology refreshes for ThinkPads, which include Alviso Chipset/Sonoma/CentrinoII whatever you want to call that combination... which sports Serial ATA, PCI Express, and Intel audio and graphics advances.... and a 533MHz FSB. And if you're considering a mobile solution v. a desktop replacement, I'm not sure how much value there is in SATA and PCI Express, or even the Intel audio/video advancements...

Daniel.

[AtmosMan]

I would wait until Alviso/Sonoma comes out later this fall. The new chipset is going to have improved audio, a/b/g wireless, and PCI express bus. The new chip is going to hit a clock speed ceiling at 2.13Ghz, then Intel will have to redesign (dual core.) Still, the new chip will have a 533Mhz FSB, which will not only increase performance, it will allow support for dual channel (DDR2) memory. If you don't need a new TP right away, wait until this fall.

[Mofongo]

I ditto AltmosMan. If you have a working laptop that you can easily get by with until Q4, then I would wait for Alviso/Sonoma. The increased memory bandwidth can also be potentially useful depending on what you do. PCI express will at least guarentee that you can keep buying expansion cards for the next few years. I think there will be 8x AGP finally, as well (potentially important for Longhorn).

I would have waited until then, but I really needed a laptop now.

Mofongo

[Conmee]

I would wait until Alviso/Sonoma comes out later this fall. The new chipset is going to have improved audio, a/b/g wireless, and PCI express bus. The new chip is going to hit a clock speed ceiling at 2.13Ghz, then Intel will have to redesign (dual core.) Still, the new chip will have a 533Mhz FSB, which will not only increase performance, it will allow support for dual channel (DDR2) memory. If you don't need a new TP right away, wait until this fall.

I agree with AtmosMan, however... just to play Devil's advocate... lol

Improved audio in a notebook computer seems unimpressive. True, there are audiophiles who will find use for the advanced audio features or their notebook needs the best of everything and will be a desktop replacement, but for 90% of casual users, the audio improvements aren't not worth waiting for. True, some people will find use/enjoyment from various Dolby/SurroundSound/EAX/other audio improvements, but really, it does absolute no good when listening to the notebook's speakers or travel earphones.

And PCI Express is nearly useless in a notebook at this point, and even next year. The standard PCI bus sufficiently handles the components in a notebook (the speed bottleneck continues to be the HDD). In fact, PCI Express will initially be used to replace AGP, with a slew of new PCI Express video cards. Problem is, most cards don't stress the AGP4X bandwidth, let alone AGP8X, (not to mention the notebook versions of GPUs still trail desktop units) so what will a notebook use PCI Express for, unless it's to update the PC Card interface, or there's some sort of external Dock station or other connection for PCI Express cards. As for the 533MHz FSB for the CPUs, the Alviso chipset is supposed to enable the higher FSB, independent of having PCI Express. And outside of Europe/Asia/businesses, I have yet to run into anyone who needs a/b/g or even desires it. Unless 802.11a makes a big push or something changes in the market, I don't see that as any real benefit to 90% of the individual users (and yes, there are exceptions, just like 10Base100 v. Gigabit, but by and large, most individuals and homes are 802.11b for WiFi, and more and more, 802.11g).

So unless higher CPU clock speed or memory speed (DDR2) is a necessity, there's no need to wait. And if CPU speed and memory speed ARE an issue, Alienware makes a killer lineup.

But the drawback to all this bigger/faster/better stuff is that the battery will continue to take a hit until feul cells or other technology come around to power all this stuff, or these components start to require significantly less power. The FSB and DDR2 alone will put a dent into the current 9-Cell battery IBM provides. Just keep in mind (even though it's a desktop CPU), the top Alienware system with a 3.4GHz CPU, 1GB PC3200, 800MHz FSB, 60GB Drive weighs 7.5 lbs WITHOUT a battery, and with an 8-Cell battery gets about 1.5-2 hours of operation with power mgmt enabled! lol

As the Devil's advocate, all I'm saying is that there are trade-offs, and Alviso/Sonoma/CentrinoII, while meant for the mobile market, will still require some comrpomises in terms of heat, battery power, fans to cool the system, etc.

Daniel.

P.S. Of course, I just bought a T42p, and will probably sell it to get a T43 or T50 when all these goodies are launched... lol

[boardmonger]

I thought the problem was not as much with Intel as it is with the other technology used in the chipset like the SATA laptop drive, DDR2 in a SODIMM form factor, and Mobile PCI-X cards. I haven't had the time in the last few months to keep up to date on some of these technologies, but as far as I remember most if not all of these features will not be available in large quantities by Q4.

[ryan]

don't hold your breath for sonoma:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/06/16 ... o_2_delay/

it's at Q1 2005 now... then give the big blues another quarter to implement it (it's a much bigger thing to change then just the cpu, like dothan was)