notebooks 10 years from now...

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#1 Post by **daeojkim** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 1:57 pm

Since I got my hands on X41 and reading about Sony TZ, I have been thinking about what the notebooks will be like 10 years from now. I may be too optimistic but I would like to see this kind of ultraportable notebook 10 years from now.

-Weight: 1 lb.
-0.5" thick
-11" - 12" Widescreen (WSXGA or WUXGA, of course software will have to be adjusted so that fonts are readable)
-500GB SSD
-1 Gigabit wireless
-Instant boot. Like PDAs these days
-Fanless. So absolutely quiet
-10 hour operating time on battery
-Octacore processors?

What do you think? Am I too optimistic? What kind of notebooks do you think will be available 10 years from now?

meshua · #2 Post by **meshua** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 3:01 pm

Hi,

Nice thoughts. The question is if in 2017 current concepts will still exist or new shaped technology is gonna blow out our todays minds and imaginations about notebook architecture. I really doubt that "we" can predict what's gonna be 10 yrs later from now on. I care less about "absolute power" (e.g. x-core CPUs) but love solid/ruggedized and light-weighted laptops w/ long battery life and boundless communication. Also my focus is on usability. So pls stick this topic and we'll talk about again in 2017

Brgds, Torsten.

#3 Post by **jdhurst** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 3:27 pm

daeojkim wrote:<snip> I may be too optimistic but I would like to see this kind of ultraportable notebook 10 years from now.
<snip>

Who knows what we will have in 10 years?
10 years ago, we had a 1.9 pound laptop that was an inch thick and went in a pociket. Today the OQO is not too far from what you want. 10 years on - who knows?

What with Bucky Tube nano switches and molelcular electronics, I think we will see super small computers. I have always been looking for Beep (Hewlett Packard - 1979 story). The Blackberry is part way along. The iPhone looks like another step.

... JDH

#4 Post by **gator** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 4:09 pm

Faster processors and cheaper memory (RAM and HDD - these are kind of merging into solid state anyway) is inevitable. What I want in computers 10 years is this: I should not be tethered to any kind of a wire, be it for power or internet or anything else. This would translate to:

1. True 24 hour battery life, so that I can stay away from a power outlet as long as I want without carrying extra batteries.
2. Wifi (or its faster advanced equivalent) everywhere with excellent signal coverage.
3. Rugged design but not at the cost of weight/portability.
4. Better quality screens with higher resolutions and teh ability in s/w to scale up and down in size seamlessly. Heck, I'd be more than happy if flexview will continue to be available!
5. Intelligent operating systems that work better at maintaining system integrity without much of my intervention.
6. Superior voice recognition - this is a doubt, I don't know if I'll like "talking" to my computers, or my computers "talking" back to me.
7. Applications/Programs that use memory and other resources efficiently instead of being hogs. I really hate today's software wherein every program takes so much HDD space and memory for not doing anything much better. Of course some things are improved, but not always (like for eg. I'll never go back to Office 97 from 2003, but I would not transfer to Office 2007 anytime in the near future). But sometimes the freedom of having improved resources is misused in software design - Vista takes 15 GB of space and is unacceptable by any standards IMHO.

I'll add more to this list when I can collect my thoughts better.

furrycute · #5 Post by **furrycute** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 5:49 pm

Will battery life really improve?

CPU's and GPU's will get more and more powerful, and will consume more and more power.

My first laptop from about 7 years ago could last about 3 hours on a single charge. 7 years later I don't see much improvement in battery life.

#6 Post by **jdhurst** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 6:28 pm

furrycute wrote:Will battery life really improve?

In a 40 year period from when I started using batteries, there has been little overall change. I guess the change to Lithium Ion was the biggest improvement in that time frame, but batteries overall remain an impediment to computers, hearing aids, radios, automobiles, and so on. I haven't seen anything new on the horizon to provide hope, so don't wait up on it.
... JDH

qviri · #7 Post by **qviri** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 6:46 pm

furrycute wrote:CPU's and GPU's will get more and more powerful, and will consume more and more power.

Not really - notebook CPUs have been holding steady at around 25-30 W power draw at full blast for the past few generations. (And going down if you include the Pentium 4 "Mobile" aberration.) Performance has obviously improved.

I think we may see massively multi-core CPUs down the line. That ought to be fun.

furrycute · #8 Post by **furrycute** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 7:02 pm

Intel's quad core desktop CPU is already available on high end systems.

Probably this time next year we'll be seeing quad core laptop CPU's. In ten years, I don't know, 32 cores?

And RAM, 32GB max RAM?

#9 Post by **gator** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 7:12 pm

I don't know if you said 32 intentionally, but 32 is supposed to be the "magic" number for multi core systems.

Turbo Audi · #10 Post by **Turbo Audi** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 7:29 pm

furrycute wrote:Intel's quad core desktop CPU is already available on high end systems.

Probably this time next year we'll be seeing quad core laptop CPU's. In ten years, I don't know, 32 cores?

And RAM, 32GB max RAM?

And hopefully the software to take advantage of all those cores.

furrycute · #11 Post by **furrycute** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 7:34 pm

gator wrote:I don't know if you said 32 intentionally, but 32 is supposed to be the "magic" number for multi core systems.

Really? I had no idea

Why is that?

furrycute · #12 Post by **furrycute** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 7:42 pm

Well, in terms of size, I think the main limiting factor right now is actually the LCD screen.

I mean, you can't be expected to do any sort of serious work on a 12" screen. A 15" screen is the ideal trade off between usability and portability. But a 15" is just a tiny bit on the large side. So nowadays we settle with a 14". Seriously, I am going to pull my hair out if I have to work with anything smaller than a 14".

With OLED's becoming more and more mainstream, perhaps one day the display film will be thin and dural enough that we can have foldable displays. Imagine being able to work with a 17" screen while on the go, and being able to fold that screen in half when you are done with your work. That would be marvelous.

Tablets will probably become more mainstream. Imagine reading an ebook, it's so much more convenient to read it on a tablet where you are able to hold the tablet just like a book than to read that ebook on a traditional laptop.

Anyways, just some thoughts.

#13 Post by **tomh009** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 7:47 pm

furrycute wrote:I mean, you can't be expected to do any sort of serious work on a 12" screen.

Hmmmmmm. The funny thing is, my employer still pays me twice a month for all the "non-serious" work I do on my X31!

#14 Post by **jdhurst** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 7:54 pm

furrycute wrote:<snip>I mean, you can't be expected to do any sort of serious work on a 12" screen. A 15" screen is the ideal<snip>

I use a 14 inch screen currently, and I view 15 inch machines as entirely too large and too heavy to be of any interest as I move around a lot. For a while, I used a TP240 and happily did all kinds of serious work. I would settle for a X in a flash IF one of them had an ultrabay.
... JDH

#15 Post by **ryengineer** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 7:58 pm

I don't think there can be a perfect notebook for us, if we see a good product from a company today then a better one always pops up from another tomorrow.

However, the things OP is hoping from a ultraportable notebook in next ten years would be very nice to see.

furrycute · #16 Post by **furrycute** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 8:08 pm

Okay, maybe I was a bit too harsh about sub 14" screens...

skitty4gzus · #17 Post by **skitty4gzus** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:42 pm

I can see battery technology getting better. We have gone from NI CD - NI MH - Lion - Li Polymer in the last few years. You figure the ultrabay batteries are 5 cell and they get you almost 2 hours on a charge. Well at least cells will probably get smaller and lighter, but as far as last longer, we will just see. Maybe we will eventually move to onboard hydrogen cell technology? Those cells prototyped for the military are not too big and can power small electronics.

Turbo Audi · #18 Post by **Turbo Audi** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 11:47 pm

skitty4gzus wrote:I can see battery technology getting better. We have gone from NI CD - NI MH - Lion - Li Polymer in the last few years. You figure the ultrabay batteries are 5 cell and they get you almost 2 hours on a charge. Well at least cells will probably get smaller and lighter, but as far as last longer, we will just see. Maybe we will eventually move to onboard hydrogen cell technology? Those cells prototyped for the military are not too big and can power small electronics.

Yes, Im sure battery life and large capacity flash HD drives will be the biggest thing in the years to come.

#19 Post by **BillMorrow** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 1:59 am

ARGHH..!

you are all not thinking..
think..!!
(heh, pun sorta intended!)

what is coming is not a notebook at all..

what are the most important two parts of a notebook..??

I/O..

keyboards and displays are where the improvements will need to come..

no display at all..
direct projection from computer to user via optic nerve..!
or some other direct display of the info into the users mind..

same for input to the computer..
remove the fingers and keyboard from the chain of data from user mind to computer..

THAT is where i hope to see improvement..

a thinkpad the same size as the original think pad..

about the size of a motorola razr..
or much much smaller in the future..
so it can be implanted behind a users ear and give 24/7 connection to the planet wide web..

"think" what you want to send to your computer and it will "think" the answer back to you..

maybe the iphone is a first step in that direction..

Deckard · #20 Post by **Deckard** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 4:49 am

jdhurst wrote:Who knows what we will have in 10 years?
10 years ago, we had a 1.9 pound laptop that was an inch thick and went in a pociket. Today the OQO is not too far from what you want. 10 years on - who knows?

What with Bucky Tube nano switches and molelcular electronics, I think we will see super small computers. I have always been looking for Beep (Hewlett Packard - 1979 story). The Blackberry is part way along. The iPhone looks like another step.

... JDH

What's that 'Beep' you are referring to, JDH?

Puppy · #21 Post by **Puppy** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:33 am

- black-and-white cheapest TN panels

#22 Post by **jdhurst** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:01 am

Deckard wrote:<snip>
What's that 'Beep' you are referring to, JDH?

Beep was a device about the size of a Blackberry outlined in a story in the calculator magazine Hewlett Packard used to publish. This story appeared in September, 1979.

Basically the device had a screen like a Blackberry, few keys, lots of memory, high speed cpu, wireless access, GPS, and good speech. It was your personal butler. It knew your email, voicemail, schedules, tastes, documents and other information from a home server. It could talk to you, tell you where you were, where your next appointment was, read your email to you, read your voice mail to you, make recommendations about scheduling, where to go for meals while travelling and so on.

Elements of Beep are now available (Blackberry and iPhone), so I watch with interest. I have a Blackberry, and I still use my iPAQ (better at documents and stuff). I don't yet know about an iPhone.
... JDH

#23 Post by **carbon_unit** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:27 am

I am thinking more along the line of a RAZR sized device with a couple of fold out legs so it sets on a table and projects the touch screen display onto the table surface. For portability I see a roll up sheet of plastic that will stay flat when unrolled and when tapped in the correct spot will roll up like a scroll. Similar to the "snap bracelets" that the kids liked a few years ago.
I think most humans will show a resistance to direct projection into the optic nerve based on fear of eye damage. Can you imagine this future announcement.... "Microsoft has issued a patch to correct the blindness issue that occurs when rogue code executes a buffer overflow....." Yeah, trust your eyes to Microsoft. You get two chances.

Deckard · #24 Post by **Deckard** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:51 am

jdhurst wrote:Beep was a device about the size of a Blackberry outlined in a story in the calculator magazine Hewlett Packard used to publish. This story appeared in September, 1979.

Basically the device had a screen like a Blackberry, few keys, lots of memory, high speed cpu, wireless access, GPS, and good speech. It was your personal butler. It knew your email, voicemail, schedules, tastes, documents and other information from a home server. It could talk to you, tell you where you were, where your next appointment was, read your email to you, read your voice mail to you, make recommendations about scheduling, where to go for meals while travelling and so on.

Elements of Beep are now available (Blackberry and iPhone), so I watch with interest. I have a Blackberry, and I still use my iPAQ (better at documents and stuff). I don't yet know about an iPhone.
... JDH

Thanks a lot for the detailed information.

First I thought it was a prototype or something like that, didn't realize it was a fiction.

Great story.

EDIT: I think that I found the story of Beep

http://www.snarc.net/pda/tybeep.htm

#25 Post by **jdhurst** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 7:48 am

That's the story - Thanks. I have the journal in the basement. I found it while making space for a railroad.

Fiction it was in 1979, but we are now closer 30 years later.
... JDH

wantathinkpad · #26 Post by **wantathinkpad** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:25 am

jdhurst wrote:
furrycute wrote:<snip>I mean, you can't be expected to do any sort of serious work on a 12" screen. A 15" screen is the ideal<snip>
I use a 14 inch screen currently, and I view 15 inch machines as entirely too large and too heavy to be of any interest as I move around a lot. For a while, I used a TP240 and happily did all kinds of serious work. I would settle for a X in a flash IF one of them had an ultrabay.
... JDH

I never had an x series but want to try one. But the 14" screen to me is ideal. I am a college student, and didn't believe when I heard all the businessmen on this site saying, the 15 inch was too big to open on planes. However, I recently took a flight and opened up my laptop and my 14 inch has just enough room. 15 inches would have been entirely too big.

furrycute · #27 Post by **furrycute** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 12:54 pm

carbon_unit wrote:Can you imagine this future announcement.... "Microsoft has issued a patch to correct the blindness issue that occurs when rogue code executes a buffer overflow....." Yeah, trust your eyes to Microsoft. You get two chances.

This is too funny!

#28 Post by **underclocker** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 2:23 pm

carbon_unit wrote: Yeah, trust your eyes to Microsoft. You get two chances.

Maybe only one chance with a dual core machine!

I've been getting "work" done on 12" LCD X-series TP's for over 7 years.

This minute I'm posting on the best "phone" I've ever owned, a BlackBerry Pearl 8100. Oh yeah, I'm at the beach in Albania, too! Really.

If the Pearl had a projection keyboard and projection or fold-out display, I wouldn't need to travel with a laptop - a Citrix client would be nice though

pianowizard · #29 Post by **pianowizard** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 2:28 pm

furrycute wrote:I mean, you can't be expected to do any sort of serious work on a 12" screen.....So nowadays we settle with a 14". Seriously, I am going to pull my hair out if I have to work with anything smaller than a 14".

If you're referring to 12" screens with only XGA resolution, then I agree with you. On the other hand, if it's an SXGA+ 12" screen, then one can get as much serious work done as on an SXGA+ 14" screen.

rbi · #30 Post by **rbi** » Tue Jul 03, 2007 1:47 am

I still remember very well that in the movie the One, they use projectlike watch PC?? What I imagine is you can have a smaller screen and can beam the pic anywhere you like sure not my mouth. And you can also connect this kinda laptop to any screen you can imagine sure has to be electronic.

My ideal one will be 10TB hybrid HDD, WWAN,biotech CPU,extendable GPU,card reader used to expand the system memory. size-be realistic, IPOD???,Keyboard-virtual by beaming on the table and you can touch the beamed area like typing.

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