Why do people bid on eBay minutes before an auction ends?

[pianowizard]

As discussed in this thread, bidding on an item on eBay at the last possible moment (i.e. "sniping") helps reduce the winning bid. I have noticed that many people like to place a bid several minutes before an auction ends. These people clearly understand the advantage of sniping, and yet they don't wait until the last ten seconds or so. This kind of "pseudo sniping" drives the final price of the item up, which is annoying. Why can't they just wait until the last few seconds?

This just happened about half an hour ago. It was an auction for a decent 240X, and a bunch of people started bidding with about 3 minutes left to go. The sale price was about $90 shipped, which was pretty good for that particular machine, but had everyone cooporated and held off bidding until the final seconds, it could have been even cheaper.

[Purcy]

I totally agree, I have watched a lusted after item on ebay for 7 entire days with not a bid. I had every intention of bidding in the last 15 seconds myself, yet mystery of mysteries, someone trillies in and socks down a bid with 7 minutes left to go!!! then of course others start adding on their bids as I sit in horror to see the item inflate. Depending on how high it gets, I may still slide in at the wire and sometimes I have won. But geez, those people really tick me off!

[rkawakami]

No patience perhaps? Either that, they aren't using a clock synchronized to eBay/NIST .

Yes I have noticed this in the last year or so. Many items in my watch list don't get much action until the last day. Years ago this was not true.

[bill bolton]

bidding on an item on eBay at the last possible moment (i.e. "sniping") helps reduce the winning bid.

Its a falicy. The person who is prepared to bid highest still comes out on top no matter when the bid was submitted.

Cheers,

Bill B.

[rkawakami]

Its a falicy. The person who is prepared to bid highest still comes out on top no matter when the bid was submitted.

If everyone were to bid with *logic* and not *emotion* then that would be true. The fallacy is that there will always be somebody out there that will simply try to submit a bid at the minimum bid increment, just to see they could win an auction by a few cents/dollars. That results in increasing the current bid of the auction leader and ends up costing them more $$$$.

[vanaya]

I agree with both Bill and Ray. I recently bid on an item T21 and at the last second Ray snipped. I only outbid Ray by $0.50. Some people will increase there bid once they are outbid. I usually set a limit of how much to spend and no more.



@ Ray - All it needed was a good cleaning. INSIDE and out, cat hair throughout!! They only thing I need to test is the mini/pci slot. Both cards I have are dead.

[rkawakami]

I think I found the auction that pianowizard mentioned and have done an analysis on the bidding:

The eBay bidding history

A breakdown:

Code: Select all

Original eBay bid history (reverse chronological order):

rebordosa       $56.00 13:35:40
annabelle17878  $55.00 13:35:40
annabelle17878  $50.99 13:35:15
yeshuav         $50.00 13:35:23
jeepmon51       $22.99 13:34:56
dphmin7899      $10.50 13:34:46
dwb4165         $10.00 13:33:18
dphmin7899      $10.00 13:34:18
thaniaross      $6.00  13:34:11
dphmin7899      $5.00  13:33:46
dewandak        $1.50  13:23:43
diaz529         $1.04  13:15:22
rebordosa       $1.00  12:01:54

Bid history sorted in chronological order:

eBay ID         Bid      Time      Winning ID/bid/reason
rebordosa       $1.00   12:01:54  rebordosa      @ $ 1.00 first bidder!
diaz529         $1.04   13:15:22  diaz529        @ $ 1.04
dewandak        $1.50   13:23:43  dewandak       @ $ 1.29 bid incr of $0.25 above diaz529
dwb4165         $10.00  13:33:18  dwb4165        @ $ 1.75 bid incr of $0.25 above dewandak
dphmin7899      $5.00   13:33:46  dwb4165        @ $ 5.50 bid incr of $0.50 above dphmin7899
thaniaross      $6.00   13:34:11  dwb4165        @ $ 6.50 bid incr of $0.50 above thaniaross
dphmin7899      $10.00  13:34:18  dwb4165        @ $10.00 since his/hers was the first $10 bid
dphmin7899      $10.50  13:34:46  dphmin7899     @ $10.50 a minimum bid incr over dwb4165
jeepmon51       $22.99  13:34:56  jeepmon51      @ $11.00 bid incr of $0.50 above dphmin7899
annabelle17878  $50.99  13:35:15  annabelle17878 @ $23.49 bid incr of $0.50 above jeepmon51
yeshuav         $50.00  13:35:23  annabelle17878 @ $50.99 since her max bid was below minimum incr
annabelle17878  $55.00  13:35:40  annabelle17878 @ $50.99 insurance bid b/c she saw her max bid?
rebordosa       $56.00  13:35:40  rebordosa      @ $56.00 first bidder AND last bidder!

An analysis:

dphmin7899 bid three times pushing the price up until he/she was winning
anabelle17878 bid twice, the second time possibly because she saw her max bid amount (an "insurance" bid). If she did NOT place that second bid, rebordosa would have saved $5.00

So yes, of course the person who bids the most will always come out on top. That's not what pianowizard was talking about. It's about "it could have been cheaper".

edit: Sorry if this scrolls horizontally!

[elite-elitist]

That's how I bid on eBay. I make a bid in the last 2 or 3 minutes, not when there is 10 seconds left. Mostly because I'm afraid that if I bid too late, the auction will be over. Also, I'm afraid that if people see the price is very low they will make bids for the item. If I really want the item usually I will make a bid high enough to win it. If I am unsure I'll make a low bid, then maybe bid again a couple of times.

[skitty4gzus]

@elite=elitist, that about sums up pianowizards frustration with ebay auctions. the only time i run an item up is if im trying to figure out the reserve price. than and only than i will bid it up in small increments till i reach the reserve, barring it has a low or reasonable reserve. than i will let it sit till the last few seconds. either way the best sniped auction i won was a few weeks ago. i sniped a 60gb black video ipod for $167. granted it was sunday afternoon at like 2 o'clock, not exactly ebay primetime, but sniping works!!

[bill bolton]

It's about "it could have been cheaper".

If no one else bid at all it could have been extremely "cheap" but that is not how auctions work.

Cheers,

Bill B.

[KaneElson]

I usually bid hours before hand with what I am willing to pay and let it run. Logically sniping doesn't achieve anything, if anything people are going to pay more with sniping because they are caught up in the rush of it, trying to win.

Anyway, I don't see why you should be frustrated, if the person is willing to pay more than you then they are willing to pay more... The point of an Auction is to sell to the highest bidder ...


Another reason I haven't attempted sniping is because I have a fairly slow connection so it's not very practical to try and do it.

[rkawakami]

If no one else bid at all it could have been extremely "cheap" but that is not how auctions work.

That's not really what I (and I think pianowizard) am talking about. Our point about how sniping tends to keep the overall winning bid amount lower was just proven by this 240X auction. In this case I define "sniping" as bidding within the last 5 to 6 seconds of the end of the auction. If "annabelle17878" did this, she would not have been able to enter her second bid ($55) in time and thus cost the eventual winner an additional $5. That was the initial point of this thread.

@KaneElson: Logically, sniping does two things: it keeps yourself out of the "rush" and keeps you from paying more and it can keep the overall price of the auction lower. Think about it... if you only entered ONE bid five seconds from the end of the auction, you wouldn't have time to enter a subsequent bid! "Pseudo sniping", in this case bidding in the last few minutes of the auction, will allow you to outbid yourself, exactly for the reason you state: the bidder gets caught up in the fever of the moment and increases their bid in attempt to win. It will also allow other bidders to drive up the price. It is human nature in an auction situation for somebody else to come along, see what the current bid is, and then try to bid just a few cents/dollars more. Sniping keeps this from happening. It forces you to logically think of the maximum amount you are willing to pay and makes you stick to it. If you get beat, so what? It was the most you were willing to pay anyway and you shouldn't feel bad.

You, with the slow connection, are the perfect reason why someone would use a sniping service. You don't have to be in front of your computer; you let somebody else do the work for you. Yes, it does take some *trust* because you are giving that someone the keys to your bidding account. If you are not comfortable with that, there are several programs that you can run on your computer which will automatically sign on for you and place your bid. It does require that you leave your computer on, but I think that those programs can be setup to sign on a few minutes early and wait until the proper moment to submit the bid.

[wearetheborg]

Think about it... if you only entered ONE bid five seconds from the end of the auction, you wouldn't have time to enter a subsequent bid! .

In that case, people might just submit higher bids as their ONE bid.
You might think that sniping works to keep the cost down, but as has been pointed out, pseudo-sniping just drives the cost up. Thus for true sniping to work, there must not be people bidding minutes before, which means there aren't a lot of people interested in the auction, and hence the price is lower.

Thus, auctions in which you feel sniping worked, may have just been the result of low interest. If there had been more people interested, they would have bid minutes before, negating any sniping effects.

[Harryc]

The advantage to sub 5 second sniping is this. Often times the last highest bidder will counter-offer to a bid placed if he/she has enough time to do so in the last minute of the auction. (impulse bidding) If the snipe works you've effectively won the auction at a lower price than it would have gone for if that highest bidder had time to counter bid...makes sense to me. In order for this scenario to apply the timing has to be as I stated and interest/bidding level has to be low in the final minutes of the auction. So in certain cases you can save a few bucks and often win an auction where otherwise you may not have won using a conventional bidding strategy. In summary, the timing, price (within your bidding range), and low interest level all have to be there in order to effectively snipe. This happens more times than you might think.

[bill bolton]

was just proven

All that was proven was that the winner was prepared to pay more than the 2nd highest bidder... which is precisely what an auction is about!

Cheers,

Bill B.

[pianowizard]

Thanks Ray and others for explaining the advantages of sniping so eloquently. Ray, that 240X was indeed the auction I referred to. I was going to bid $48.88 with about 10 seconds left to go.

[GomJabbar]

All that was proven was that the winner was prepared to pay more than the 2nd highest bidder... which is precisely what an auction is about!

I beg to differ. An ebay-type auction is different than a traditional auction such as an antique auction or a cattle auction. In those traditional auctions, bids continue until no one counter bids within a reasonable amount of time. In ebay-type auctions, the bid cutoff time is set well in advance. This changes the psychology of the auction participants to a degree. The second highest bidder may have been williing to pay more if he had time to counterbid. In ebay-type auctions, the counterbid is often factored into the sniping bid. But you never know if it was enough until the auction was over. In traditional auctions, you always have some seconds to decide if you want to counterbid.

I have bid on several ebay auctions and lost because my snipe was submitted too late. Without a fast internet connection or using a sniping service, this can be a factor. Who knows, I may have had the winning bid if my connection wasn't so slow. I may have driven up the final sale price if my bid would have been accepted. (I am reluctant to use a sniping service, but then again, I am just an occasional ebay participant.)

[rkawakami]

was just proven

All that was proven was that the winner was prepared to pay more than the 2nd highest bidder... which is precisely what an auction is about!

<Sigh> Bill, you're missing the point of the OP. It's quite understood by everyone that whoever bids the most will win. Or as Bart Simpson would say, Doh! I'm not debating that point and I don't think pianowizard is either. What he brought up was that "pseudo-sniping", and by inference, any other submitted bid earlier than a true 5-6 second snipe, will only drive up the eventual price.

A traditional open-call auction is a familiar routine recognized by everybody. Bidding starts out low. A couple of people get the process going by making obviously small bids. Back-and-forth they go. The price increases. The auctioneer is delivering his/her rapid-fire patter. A frenzy starts to develop. Possibly emotion starts to take over a couple of the bidders. Other bidders start dropping out as they realize the price is out of their range (a logical decision). Eventually a winner emerges. The auctioneer is quite happy as they get a percentage of the final price (gee... like eBay!). Would sniping help keep the price low in this situation? No, of course not!

A sealed bid auction is just the opposite. People have to decide what they are willing to spend and submit that ONE bid. There is an expiration time in which you have to get that bid in, after which all of the envelopes are opened and the highest bidder wins. Would sniping help here? Again, no.

eBay is NOT a traditional auction. Since there's a fixed ending time AND multiple bids are allowed, sniping is possible, and so far, allowed by eBay. As human nature is at work here, people will think about eBay as an open-call auction process and start the back-and-forth exchange of bids. Us snipers are sitting on the sidelines hoping that they don't get above what we have decided to spend on that particular item. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

Pianowizard's main beef here is that these last minute (vs. last second) bidders seem to understand the cost advantage behind the sniping principle but don't yet quite totally "get it".

From a buyer's standpoint, the purpose of an auction should be to win the item at the least possible cost. You may be thinking about an auction from the seller's viewpoint, which is, get the MOST money. If so, then that may explain why you don't seem to get what we are talking about.

@pianowizard: So you wouldn't have won anyway, even if "annabelle" did not enter her second (and a true 7-second) snipe.

As I was composing this massive post I see that GomJabbar has also chimed in...

[pianowizard]

So you wouldn't have won anyway, even if "annabelle" did not enter her second (and a true 7-second) snipe.

But had "jeepmon51", "dphmin7899", "dwb4165" and other premature snipers not bidded, "yeshuav", "annabelle17878" and "rebordosa" might not have realized so many people were interested in this item, and might have bidded less. So my $48.88 could have been high enough!

[tselling]

I have a 2 year old so may not be able to bid in the last seconds. I tend to watch the auctions and if I can get online when it is near closing I make my bid.... sometime within a few hours, sometimes minutes.

[rkawakami]

<snip>... might not have realized so many people were interested in this item, and might have bidded less.

Of course there's always that possibility. But as the focus of the topic was about how people appear to know about the (perceived?) benefits of sniping, yet don't quite do it right (entering in bids minutes from the end and placing multiple bids in that timeframe), I was trying to show by the breakdown of the bidding sequence for the particular auction you referenced, that this indeed happened here. Annabelle had enough time to see that although her bid was the highest, it may have been in jeopardy and so she submitted a second bid which caused the winner to pay an extra $5. I believe THAT was the whole point of your OP.

And just so this is clear... I will admit to manually sniping some auctions on occasion. In fact, I will even confess that I am guilty of multiple last-second bids. If I have the time and opportunity to sit in front of a computer while an auction ends I will open up three tabs to the same auction. In two of them I pre-load bids and stop at the last screen where I confirm my bid. In the third window I am refreshing the auction page and watching the action. I've already pre-determined my highest bid. The other bid is placed about two bid increments below. Why? Because in some cases you can win an auction at less than the bid increment if you guess right. Depending upon the action in the last 15 seconds or so, I will decide to enter one or both bids. By waiting until the very end I cannot second-guess myself and submit another bid.

As a buyer, that's the name of the game - to win by paying the least amount of money. As a seller I also don't mind if people snipe. Why? Haven't I been saying that the seller gets less money by people sniping? Yes, but by keeping the current bid low as long as possible there's more of a chance that my auction will be found by people searching eBay. If people have setup their searches and specified a maximum amount for the item's price, they'll see my auction as long as it's below their target. And knowing human nature, I can bet that there will be some people near the end bumping up the price.

[eddy eddy]

...
As a buyer, that's the name of the game - to win by paying the least amount of money...

You could write a PhD Thesis about it (linked to Game Theory).

But I think it only works if all other buyers think like you (buy for less). If they want or need the item, their bids would be the maximum they could afford rising the price up.

For example: If I would like to buy this item, I would say "I think it's worth $50" and would bid accordingly at any time (not only when time runs out).

[bill bolton]

What he brought up was that "pseudo-sniping", and by inference, any other submitted bid earlier than a true 5-6 second snipe, will only drive up the eventual price.

"pseudo-sniping" ROFL! It seems to me its nothing but a label made up to try and justify a "I could have got it cheaper if...." bleat as far as I can see.

A traditional open-call auction is a familiar routine recognized by everybody.

Just as now a days an eBay auction is similarly "familiar"

Pianowizard's main beef here is that these last minute (vs. last second) bidders seem to understand the cost advantage behind the sniping principle but don't yet quite totally "get it".

What doesn't seems to being "got" here is that other bidders do have different strategies, which may or not pay off, in the same way that sniping may or may not pay off. Just because one strategy gets in the way of another run by a different buyer on a particular auction is no excuse for publically bleating about it.

Cheers,

Bill B.

[dr_st]

I'm with Bill here.

I think that this entire "sniping" business is an ugly and blatant abuse of the system. Not saying that there is a way around it, but I think that people who openly use it to their advantage shouldn't complain if someone else refuses to play their game. You want to buy something at the lowest price possible - it's true, but others may just want to buy this item, at no more than a price of X. Now, if they are willing to pay X, you cannot hold it against them that they submitted a bid, and you had to pay X+1 (instead of X-1) to win. Or maybe you didn't win, because you were not willing to pay X+1. Well, it is not their problem too.

[ccotenj]

+1... the whole concept of sniping really bothers me... it's the old "attempt to beat the system" thing, and then when people don't get away with it (or don't get something as "cheap" as they thought they would), they complain "how dare someone bid on something they want?"... well, put the shoe on the other foot... what about the poor slob who was sitting there thinking HE/SHE was going to get what they wanted "cheap" and someone snipes them at the last second?

[rkawakami]

I think that this entire "sniping" business is an ugly and blatant abuse of the system.

and

<snip>... it's the old "attempt to beat the system" thing...<snip>

Obviously, speaking as somebody who is pro-sniping, I don't think I am "abusing" or "beating" the system. I am using a bidding strategy that is allowed by eBay. There are no rules which prevent one from using this technique.

True abuse of the system is what I'm dealing with one particular seller at the moment. I have won seven disk drives in three different auctions from the same seller, at extremely great prices, and then he tells me:

- my total cost is not $110.66 + $55.65 shipping (!) for the 7 drives, but $327 (and does not explain how he arrives at that figure)
- that after I explain to him that I've contacted eBay and they backup my total cost of $166.31, that all of a sudden the 60GB and 80GB drives are not available and he only has the 40GB drives

That's abuse.

ref:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 0147352403
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 0147038597
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 0147350307

Not saying that there is a way around it, but I think that people who openly use it to their advantage shouldn't complain if someone else refuses to play their game.

Despite my numerous posts in this thread I have not once "complained" about the bidding techniques of the non-sniper. I am merely trying to support the assertion that pianowizard made in the opening post to this thread:

These people clearly understand the advantage of sniping, and yet they don't wait until the last ten seconds or so.

I believe that the bidding history post above showed that.

<snip>... what about the poor slob who was sitting there thinking HE/SHE was going to get what they wanted "cheap" and someone snipes them at the last second?

I have been that "poor slob". Early on in my eBay "career" I lost many auctions because I was sniped. I learned what the concept was about and begun using it. To me it makes sense that I can mask my interest in a particular item and keep myself out of a bidding war. I think of it this way: Why announce to the whole eBay community what I think a particular item is worth before the end of the auction? I don't know if you or the others here do this, but sometimes I search the current high bidder's previous history to see if they have recently bid on a similar item. If I can see how much they were willing to pay for such an item before, I can then take an educated guess what their maximum bid is now. Is that "abusing" or "beating" the system? No. I am merely using the tools provided by eBay to do some research.

<snip>...they complain "how dare someone bid on something they want?"...

It doesn't seem like you've read the initial post or understood my position here. We are not complaining about the fact that other people are bidding on the auction.

[pianowizard]

<snip>...they complain "how dare someone bid on something they want?"...

It doesn't seem like you've read the initial post or understood my position here. We are not complaining about the fact that other people are bidding on the auction.

Thanks for understanding me! I was of course complaining about people who try to snipe but don't do it right. I don't have any problem with people bidding several days, or even hours, before the end of an auction.

BTW, dr_st and ccotenj, why do you get upset when a sniper snatches what you want from you at the last second? Didn't you already bid the highest amount you're willing to pay? If someone else is willing to pay more than you, don't they deserve to win the item? I guess you are saying that you prefer to have an opportunity to increase your bid? In other words, you would rather be involved in a bidding war?

[dr_st]

Personally I never participated in any eBay auction. I'm speaking from a purely theoretical PoV.

But to answer your question, pianowizard, I guess that if I was to play in an auction, I would prefer an open bidding war, rather than having to snipe (or be sniped) at the last second, without even having time to see what the going price was or evaluate whether I want to keep going or drop out.

rkawakami, to me "abusing" the system is not breaking the rules, but rather playing within the rules, but using methods which are obviously different from what was intended. Basically "letter of the law" versus "spirit of the law".

I don't consider doing research on past bids and bidders to be abuse. I don't consider starting with lower bids to be abuse (why should one open all their cards at once?) I _do_ consider using an automatic sniping service that idles for 7 days, and then, when there are two seconds left, checks the current max bid, and submits (max_bid+epsilon) in order to ensure victory to be abuse. Why? Because then the auction stops being about the item or the money, but rather about who has the more accurate clock and the better sniping service. It's stupid.

And I am not accusing you or pianowizard or anyone else of foul play. Because I understand perfectly that with the current trends in eBay auctions you have no choice - if you don't play the sniping game, you will always lose to others who do. It is kinda sad, but with the system being totally automatized, I don't see how this can be avoided.

And for the record, I totally agree with you on your "true abuse" case. I think that _that_ is real fraud.

I was of course complaining about people who try to snipe but don't do it right.

The thing is that with the sniping method becoming widespread, the techniques have improved, but not everyone is adept at them. Someone who is not using an automatic service or an eBay-synchronized clock cannot snipe at the last seconds, because they just might miss. Basically, you are frustrated because of players who want to play the game but aren't advanced enough. I totally understand it, but I think they should be cut some slack. Especially when you realize that an auction's basic premise is "every man for himself" and nobody owes anything to anybody.

[rkawakami]

Personally I never participated in any eBay auction. I'm speaking from a purely theoretical PoV.

Okay, thanks for being honest about that.

rkawakami, to me "abusing" the system is not breaking the rules, but rather playing within the rules, <snip>. Basically "letter of the law" versus "spirit of the law".

Understand.

I _do_ consider using an automatic sniping service that idles for 7 days, and then, when there are two seconds left, checks the current max bid, and submits (max_bid+epsilon) in order to ensure victory to be abuse.

Ah, but that's NOT how it works. At least with the service I use, eSnipe. With that service, you enter a maximum bid at some time prior to the end of the auction and specify exactly how many seconds from the end the bid is submitted. There's NO check of the current bid and then ADDING on to it. Merely your bid is submitted at the time of your choosing. If the current price is above your bid, you lose. If the current price is below your bid, eBay accepts it as if you were sitting at your own computer with a NIST-synchronized clock.

edit: I should clarify that if some service like this exists (check current bid, add some user-predetermined amount, then submit the snipe) DO NOT EVER USE IT! Why? With the idiots that are playing the "hijack an eBay account and bid $10,000 for a parts laptop" game, if you happen to bid upon that auction with that kind of sniping service, you just submitted a "winning" bid for $10,000 plus whatever your increment was. Okay, maybe a bad example as the minimum bid increment at that level is probably a couple of hundred dollars. But I hope you see my point

[KristianJ]

I don't see any issue with sniping - might not be worth writing a detailed dissertation on, but the fact of the matter is that if you're going to bid on something on eBay, you should do so with the assumption that you're going to have a fight on your hands right up to the end of the auction. If one wants an item, then he/she should do whatever they feel they need to do to secure it within the permissible methods of eBay...or be prepared to spend a little bit more and do a Buy It Now.

From personal experience, I've only sniped a couple of times (once with a set of golf clubs, the other with an old IBM laptop where my connection failed on me) - if the price I decide to bid isn't high enough to win, then I just move on.