Help ! Should I buy a used or a new thinkpad ?

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wearetheborg · #1 Post by **wearetheborg** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:04 pm

I'm in a dilemma.

I need a secondary laptop to carry on trips etc.
Used T42s go about $550
But right now, I can get a brand new T61p 2Ghz, 100GB HDD@7200rpm, 1GB ram, rollcage, WUXGA, NVIDIA Quadro FX 570M
and a *SIX* year warranty @ $1485 incl tax.

So if I buy a new T61p, I'm set for 6 years, but I have to spend $900 more. But it seems such a good deal...

With a used T42, its cheaper, but there is no guarentee it will last.
At a $550 pricepoint, I want it to last at least 3 years, and most of it outside warranty. Is this unreasonable ?

ajkula66 · #2 Post by **ajkula66** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:38 pm

You can buy a T42 with 10 months factory warranty left from me for $460 and extend it through IBM/Lenovo for something like $179 (you'd need to verify that figure with them, I picked it here on the forum) which would give you about 2 years altogether for somewhere around $640...still a lot less than the price of a new one. Or you can extend it even further than that for more money...

If you're buying a laptop to make money, you should go with a new one. If you're not going to use it as a tool, buy used.

My opinion only.

All the best.

scosgt1 · #3 Post by **scosgt1** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:43 pm

I can sell you a brand new T60 with almost the same specs and a full three year warranty for $1150 plus shipping no tax if out of New York. See, I just saved you several hundred dollars!

Or I can sell you a mint T43 with over a year of remaining warranty for $650.00

skitty4gzus · #4 Post by **skitty4gzus** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:49 pm

thats a good price on a T61p. as good as used laptops are the prices on new laptops are hard to beat, especially the price on the T60's that SCOSGT1, which are well equipped!

wearetheborg · #5 Post by **wearetheborg** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:50 pm

I fogot to mention SXGA+ is a bare minimum.

The thing which is tipping the balance is the 6 year warranty on th T61P (5 years depot + one free from AMEX)

scosgt1 · #6 Post by **scosgt1** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:59 pm

How do you get a 5 year depot warranty from IBM, unless you are paying around $220 for an extra two years.

Keep in mind, if you are a techno-buff (T61p - you probably are) you will grow out of that laptop before 3 years are up, and the other two years of warranty are probably a waste (does make it more attractive to sell used, but not sure if you get the extra $$ back on the end).

wearetheborg · #7 Post by **wearetheborg** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 12:26 am

scosgt1 wrote:How do you get a 5 year depot warranty from IBM, unless you are paying around $220 for an extra two years.

That is correct, actually I am paying around $165 for the extra 2 years

SkiBunny · #8 Post by **SkiBunny** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 1:29 am

$1500 is awfully extravagant for a secondary laptop in today's world. It's not gonna last 5-6 years in terms of its value. It'll be worth maybe $400 after 2 years and zip in 6 years.

A T42p was about $3000 new (street value not MSRP) 2.5 years ago. Today it fetches about $600 (by contrast, if instead you'd bought a $3000 basket of chinese industrial or canadian resource stocks in 2004, they's be worth about $20,000 today instead of $600!)

For a secondary laptop, I'd buy a good used T42 for about $500 (I've seen immaculate T42 flexviews and T42p sell for that much this month), then save/invest the other $1000 in selected foreign stocks.... 5 years from now, the $1000 saved/invested should be able to buy a dozen new high-end laptops.

Just my .02

wearetheborg · #9 Post by **wearetheborg** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 2:24 am

Lets not get into a discussion on how the market may be overvalued, the end of the free credit ride, housing bust, and the fact that inflation can only go up, lowering future P/E ratios thus decreasing return

#10 Post by **KristianJ** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 2:38 am

wearetheborg wrote:Lets not get into a discussion on how the market may be overvalued, the end of the free credit ride, housing bust, and the fact that inflation can only go up, lowering future P/E ratios thus decreasing return

Gah...economics overload makes my head spin

What's your primary laptop at the moment? I'd say that the potential of the T61p to become your primary device should be a factor worth considering. And how much money do you have right now? If you have the $1485 right here right now it should make your decision that much easier. Simply spend it on the T61p and whatever you have now becomes your secondary machine.

wearetheborg · #11 Post by **wearetheborg** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 3:00 am

KristianJ wrote: Gah...economics overload makes my head spin

What's your primary laptop at the moment? I'd say that the potential of the T61p to become your primary device should be a factor worth considering. And how much money do you have right now? If you have the $1485 right here right now it should make your decision that much easier. Simply spend it on the T61p and whatever you have now becomes your secondary machine.

Primary laptop is Dell Precison M90 17 incher that I got last year. 2Ghz, 2GB ram etc. Runs great, has three years or warranty on it.
I'm interested mostly in having a lighter laptop to take on trips.
The M90 at 9lbs is a tad heavy

The only thing I'm concerned with a used laptop is what if it dies a year from now, then I'd have wasted 500-600$ for a years use.

SkiBunny · #12 Post by **SkiBunny** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 3:11 am

You first raised the issue of value, and I agreed. For a rapidly depreciating item like a laptop (which loses its value at the rate of nearly 50% per year), the best value is to buy the cheapest thing that fully meets your needs and save the rest for later.

Brad · #13 Post by **Brad** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 3:21 am

It seems to me, in my opinion, that recent vintage ThinkPads appear much more powerful and will still be relevant in 6 years. Of course I can't predict the future like BIO CPU's and built in DLP projectors. My trusty A2x series machines work nothing like the T43p machines of over a year ago in relation to operating systems and software.

What I am saying is that the processors and chipsets on these ThinkPads like the T42 will run current operating systems and beyond for several more years at least.

Thats my story and I am sticking to it.

Brad

wearetheborg · #14 Post by **wearetheborg** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 3:29 am

Brad wrote:It seems to me, in my opinion, that recent vintage ThinkPads appear much more powerful and will still be relevant in 6 years. Of course I can't predict the future like BIO CPU's and built in DLP projectors. My trusty A2x series machines work nothing like the T43p machines of over a year ago in relation to operating systems and software.

What I am saying is that the processors and chipsets on these ThinkPads like the T42 will run current operating systems and beyond for several more years at least.

Thats my story and I am sticking to it.

Brad

The question is not whether the T4x harware will be sufficient, the question is whther the laptops will be working AT ALL in a few years due to hardware failure...

scosgt1 · #15 Post by **scosgt1** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 7:25 am

If you want something light for travel, get an X60 or an X41. The small laptops seem to remain relevant a lot longer

#16 Post by **JaneL** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 7:40 am

wearetheborg wrote:The question is not whether the T4x harware will be sufficient, the question is whther the laptops will be working AT ALL in a few years due to hardware failure...

I don't know that anyone can answer that question for you without a crystal ball. I have a T40 that I used for over 2 years. After I got my T60p, the T40 started having problems, and it will be going in for service as soon as I get time to call it in and package it up. After that, I expect it to work for several more years. Once the extended warranty is up, I expect to be able to pick up parts for it to fix it myself if need be.

pianowizard · #17 Post by **pianowizard** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 7:54 am

wearetheborg wrote:the question is whther the laptops will be working AT ALL in a few years due to hardware failure...

Of course no one can accurately predict the future. I think the best thing you can do is to get a really cheap used laptop, so that even if it breaks in a few years, it won't be a big loss. Have you considered the X2* series? They are very cheap ($100 - $300) these days, and they seem to be more reliable than the T4* series. You'll also like their light weight (~3.5 lb).

#18 Post by **tomh009** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 8:12 am

pianowizard wrote:I think the best thing you can do is to get a really cheap used laptop, so that even if it breaks in a few years, it won't be a big loss. Have you considered the X2* series? They are very cheap ($100 - $300) these days, and they seem to be more reliable than the T4* series. You'll also like their light weight (~3.5 lb).

The one downside with the X2 series is that there is no USB2 support, although you can add that with a relatively inexpensive CardBus card. The first ones with built-in USB2 were the X31 and X40.

#19 Post by **underclocker** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 8:28 am

I'm a confessed ThinkPad lover, but since you already have a Dell, why not get another one of the entry models? For the price your willing to spend on a T42, you can get a 15.4" widescreen, 80 to 120GB drive, fast video, 1 to 2GB RAM, DVD burner, dual core CPU, WiFi, Vista, warranty, etc.

And, you can use the same AC adapter - probably the biggest benefit of all!

Here is one of many inexpensive, but excellent Dell options -> http://www.xpbargains.com/index.php/send_deal/72381

Disclaimer: I don't own any Dell laptops!

SkiBunny · #20 Post by **SkiBunny** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 12:31 pm

The only thing we can reliably predict is that that the $1500 new T61 will depreciate more rapidly than the $500 used T42.

Even in the unlikely event that the T42 breaks beyond repair after a year, in which case you're out $500, the new $1500 T61 will certainly depreciate by that $500 (or more) after its first year. I just saw a fully-optioned T60p sell for $1025, which was well under half of its initial price a year ago.

Also, I have a instinct that the T42 was more carefully assembled than those T61's coming out of the compal plant in shanghai. I think the T61 is built to be more price-competitive than its predecessors.

elite-elitist · #21 Post by **elite-elitist** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:04 pm

I've bought used laptops before and I was extremely disappointed. They had little faults that annoy me.

Because of my bad experience I personally would get a new one.

You can find a new T40 sometimes. Thinkpadworld on eBay recently sold new T40s.

I would also look at the R series if you don't mind a laptop with less features. I find that they are often overlooked. You can get a new R50 for the price of a used T40. Although, the R series only have a one year warranty.

pianowizard · #22 Post by **pianowizard** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:13 pm

elite-elitist wrote:Thinkpadworld on eBay recently sold new T40s.

The "factory sealed" laptops that they sell are actually refurbished.

elite-elitist · #23 Post by **elite-elitist** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:15 pm

You're absolutely right. My bad.

wearetheborg · #24 Post by **wearetheborg** » Wed Jul 25, 2007 2:49 am

I did some ad-hoc calculations for computing the avg price/year of a used laptop.
Based on
http://forum.notebookreview.com/showthread.php?t=32267
It seems thinkpads have a 0.3 chance of failing at the end of year 3 and year 4.
Lets assume I'm only considering laptops with a 1 year warranty remaining (ie 2 years old T42/T43).
Lets also assume that if a laptop survives year 5 that its going to live forever.

Price of used laptop= Z
Laptop failing in year 3 has no effect on my avg price (as it would be covered under warranty).
Avg price if laptop fails in year 4 (lets assume it fails in the beginnng the year) = Z
Avg price if laptop fails in year 5 = Z/2
Avg price if laptop survives year 5 = 0

Then, avg price is
0.3xZ + (1-0.3)x0.3x Z/2 = 0.47xZ

For Z=550, this works out to avg price/year of $258.
Compare that to the new laptop:
Price = 1485+$100 ship+insurance in 6th year to get repaired = $1585.
Avg price/year = $264

SkiBunny, you have presented a good argument in that the T61P may deprecate more than $500 in 1 year. However, I'm not planning on selling it after 1 year. Also, I'm not sure that it will.
I have not found any comparable laptop with a 4 year warranty for around $1000. All I see are laptops with 2 year warranty remaining.
I guess I'm a bit scared by the variance of the distribution.

ccotenj · #25 Post by **ccotenj** » Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:18 pm

1) buy the t41p...
2) keep it for a year...
3) sell it for basically what you paid for it...
4) buy a year old t61p...

come out 500 dollars (or so, maybe more, maybe less) ahead on the deal...

the t61p WILL depreciate that much, unless it bucks all trends of computing equipment...

to be honest, i think that people tend to overvalue the worth of the warrantee (not just on computers, on all electronics)... but that's just me... i understand the thought process of "well, if it breaks, i get it fixed for free"... but unless the lcd or the mobo dies, is the warrantee really worth it? yea, if the keyboard breaks (for example), you get a new one for free, but is it worth paying a couple hundred extra dollars to get a keyboard repaired?

ymmv. but imo, i'd rather buy a 4 year old machine for 300 with no warrantee than a 3 year old machine with a year warrantee left on it for 500. i'd gamble that i wouldn't have a repair that would cost more than 200.

that and a buck eighty one gets you a medium joe at the local dunkin...

ps. fwiw, you can't ignore depreciation in your cost analysis, and you also can't assume that the machine will be worthless when it breaks. after a period of time, they will both be depreciated to essentially the same number, but they'll have value to part out.

wearetheborg · #26 Post by **wearetheborg** » Thu Jul 26, 2007 3:03 am

Just found out that the contrast ratio for the WUXGA T61P is 500:1 compared to 200:1 or 300:1 for older SXGA+ T40-T43s

scosgt1 · #27 Post by **scosgt1** » Thu Jul 26, 2007 6:29 am

Probably because it is FlexView

ajkula66 · #28 Post by **ajkula66** » Thu Jul 26, 2007 7:02 am

WUXGA vs. SXGA+ is not really a fair comparison in any respect...you should really compare WUXGA vs. UXGA differences...I have no clue what the actual numbers are, but have owned UXGA T42P and was VERY impressed with the screen...not to say that it'll match the WUXGA new ones, but still...

pianowizard · #29 Post by **pianowizard** » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:02 am

scosgt1 wrote:Probably because it is FlexView

WUXGA is not Flexview.

wearetheborg · #30 Post by **wearetheborg** » Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:22 pm

ajkula66 wrote:WUXGA vs. SXGA+ is not really a fair comparison in any respect...you should really compare WUXGA vs. UXGA differences...I have no clue what the actual numbers are, but have owned UXGA T42P and was VERY impressed with the screen...not to say that it'll match the WUXGA new ones, but still...

That is correct, the older UXGA flexview screens have 400:1 or 500:1 contrast ratio.
BTW, it seems the newer WSXGA+ screens have 500:1 contrast ratio too

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